The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.12%.  The dollar today garnered some support on signs of easing trade tensions after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump will ease auto tariffs and lift levies on foreign parts for cars and trucks made in the US. The dollar fell back from its best level after the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a record high, a negative factor for Q1 GDP, and after the Conference Board US Apr consumer confidence index fell more than expected to a 5-year low.

The US Mar trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a record high of -$162.0 billion, wider than expectations of -$145.0 billion and a negative factor for Q1 GDP.

The US Feb S&P CoreLogic composite 20 home price index rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y.

US Mar JOLTS job openings fell -288,000 to a 6-month low of 7.192 million, showing a substantially weaker labor market than expectations of 7.500 million.

The Conference Board US Apr consumer confidence index fell -7.3 to a 5-year low of 86.0, weaker than expectations of 88.0.

The markets are discounting the chances at 9% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting, down from a 30% chance last week.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.22%.  The euro today is under pressure from a stronger dollar. Also, today's news that Eurozone economic confidence fell more than expected to a 4-month low was bearish for the euro.  Losses in the euro are limited after the ECB's March CPI inflation expectations indicator unexpectedly increased, which is a hawkish factor for ECB policy.   

The Eurozone Apr economic confidence index fell -1.4 to a 4-month low of 93.6, weaker than expectations of 94.5.

The ECB Mar 1-year CPI inflation expectations indicator unexpectedly rose to an 11-month high of +2.9% from +2.6% in Feb, stronger than expectations of a decline to +2.5%.  The ECB Mar 3-year CPI expectations indicator unexpectedly rose to a 1-year high of +2.5% from +2.4% in Feb, stronger than expectations of a decline to +2.3%.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the June 5 policy meeting.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.18%.  The yen is mildly lower today as an easing of trade tensions has reduced the safe-haven appeal of the yen after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump will lift tariffs on foreign parts for cars and trucks made in the US.  Losses in the yen are limited as T-note yields declined, a supportive factor for the yen.  Today's trading activity in the yen may be muted with Japanese markets closed for the Showa Day holiday. 

June gold (GCM25) today is down -32.20 (-0.96%), and May silver (SIK25) is up +0.205 (+0.62%).  Precious metals prices today are mixed.  Gold is under pressure today, and silver is climbing on reduced tariffs.  The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump would lift tariffs on foreign parts for cars and trucks made in the US. The lifting of the foreign parts tariffs curbs safe-haven demand for gold but is a positive factor for industrial metals demand and silver prices.  Today's stronger dollar is a bearish factor for precious metals prices.  

Concern the US-China trade war will persist and undercut global economic growth is boosting safe-haven demand for gold and undercutting silver after President Trump said the US would not lower tariffs on China unless "they give us something substantial." Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals as the Israel-Hamas and the US-Houthi conflicts continue.